(NSC) HAVE CHINA'S EMISSIONS PEAKED?

A massive rollout of wind and solar power across China may mean the country’s emissions peaked in 2023, in what would be a historic turning point in the fight against climate change.

China’s CO2 emissions hit an all-time high in 2023 as its economy rebounded from the impacts of the covid-19 pandemic. But since then, huge amounts of wind and solar power have been added to the nation’s electricity grid, while emissions from the construction industry have fallen.

A new analysis indicates that China’s carbon emissions remained flat from July to September 2024 after falling 1 per cent in the second quarter of the year. It means 2024 emissions may remain flat on 2023 levels overall, or even fall slightly.

This would be hugely significant for global climate efforts, says Lauri Myllyvirta at the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, a think tank in Finland. “China’s emissions growth has been the dominant factor pushing global emissions up for the past eight years since the signing of the Paris climate agreement,” he says.

In its climate change plan submitted to the United Nations, China promised to peak its greenhouse gas emissions before 2030, and to reach net-zero emissions by 2060. But experts warn this plan is not nearly ambitious enough given the outsize impact China has on global climate change, as the world’s largest emitter.

Peaking emissions as early as possible in China is crucial, says Myllyvirta. “That would open up the door to the country beginning to reduce emissions much faster than its current commitments require,” he says. “This would have enormous significance for the global effort to avoid catastrophic climate change.”

China is racing to ramp up electricity supply across the country and meet rapidly increasing demand for power. This demand jumped by 7.2 per cent between July and September compared with a year earlier, driven by rising living standards, as well as strong heatwaves during August and September, which increased demand for cooling.

New renewables capacity has been deployed across China at breakneck speed to help bridge the power demand gap. Solar generation rose by a phenomenal 44 per cent and wind by 24 per cent during July to September, compared with the same period in 2023. Based on current trajectories, the growth in solar power in China this year will equal the total annual power generation of Australia in 2023. More of this article (New Scientist) - link - more like this (China) - link - more like this (renewables) - link