Image inspiration - Leonora Carrington - link
In 2017 China changed the global recycling industry almost overnight. Its National Sword policy effectively closed the country's doors to imported plastic waste after years of accepting enormous quantities from Europe, Britain, the United States and elsewhere. At the time, there was considerable anger and consternation throughout the Western waste and recycling industry. Suddenly there was nowhere for millions of tonnes of supposedly recyclable plastic to go.China had a valid point. For years, wealthy countries had been shipping enormous quantities of poorly sorted, contaminated and often unrecyclable plastic and other crap halfway around the world and happily recording it as recycling. China was left to separate the useful material from everybody else's rubbish and deal with the environmental consequences.
National Sword essentially said enough but nine years later something interesting is happening. Under China's new 15th five year Circular Economy Development Plan, Beijing intends to expand the import and use of high-quality recycled raw materials from overseas. China wants recycled plastic back but there's an important distinction. China is not reopening its borders to the contaminated plastic waste it rejected in 2017. Imported solid waste remains prohibited. What China increasingly wants is plastic that has already been properly sorted, processed and transformed into a consistent secondary raw material suitable for manufacturing. Existing Chinese standards already recognise products such as recycled plastic pellets and PET flakes, while the new plan proposes widening the range of qualifying recycled materials.
In essence, China still doesn't want our rubbish. It may increasingly want to buy the useful material we manufacture from it and the reason why is the most interesting part of the story. National Sword successfully reduced the environmental problems associated with importing other countries' waste but it couldn't eliminate China's enormous demand for plastic. Without imported recycled feedstock and without sufficiently strong policies requiring manufacturers to use recycled material, the market did something remarkably predictable - it turned to virgin plastic.
China's imports of primary plastic increased from around 29.7 million tonnes in 2017 to 40.9 million tonnes in 2020. China then dramatically expanded its own petrochemical industry with self sufficiency in synthetic resins reportedly reaching around 90% by 2024. In effect, China stopped importing much of the world's discarded plastic but continued consuming mountains of plastic. Increasingly, it simply made virgin material itself.
That in itself is not necessarily evidence that National Sword was wrong. It demonstrates something more important. Restricting the supply of recycled material does not automatically create a circular economy. There also has to be demand for recycled material, and China appears to have learned that lesson.
Its latest circular economy plans include an ambition to produce more than 19.5 million tonnes of recycled plastic annually by 2030 while improving access to high-quality overseas recycled feedstock. China is also the world's largest manufacturer and exporter of plastic goods, increasingly selling into markets where recycled-content requirements are becoming more demanding.
What's happening in China isn't simply environmental policy, it's industrial policy, resource security and economics, and this is where the move becomes particularly relevant for Europe. While China is considering how to make it easier for high quality recycled materials to enter the country, the European Union is moving in almost the opposite direction. From November 2026, the EU will prohibit exports of plastic waste to non-OECD countries.
The two policies are not directly contradictory. Europe wants to stop environmental problems being exported and encourage more plastic to be recycled within Europe. China still doesn't want imported waste either, but the contrast raises a question.
China has spent nine years discovering that restricting the movement of recyclable plastic without simultaneously creating sufficient demand for recycled material can strengthen the position of virgin plastic. Is Europe in danger of conducting a similar experiment?
Britain is no longer part of the European Union and is therefore not directly subject to its new waste shipment regulation, but Britain nevertheless remains subject to strict international and domestic controls governing waste exports and nobody should seriously advocate returning to the days of shipping contaminated mixed-plastic bales around the world and calling it recycling but if British waste plastic can be sorted, washed and processed into a consistent, specification-grade secondary raw material that a manufacturer in China genuinely wants to purchase, that is a very different proposition.
This, in my opinion, also exposes a weakness in the way we sometimes think about recycling in Britain. For years, enormous emphasis has been placed on collection. We measure recycling rates, introduce additional collection requirements, tell households which bin to use and congratulate ourselves when another material is added to the recycling system but collecting something doesn't create a circular economy. Somebody ultimately has to want the material that comes out the other end.
Our recent experience with flexible plastics demonstrates exactly that problem. Collecting increasingly complicated mixtures of polymers is relatively easy compared with consistently turning them into secondary materials capable of competing technically and economically with virgin polymer and maybe China's experience provides a useful lesson.
In 2017 China was entirely justified in telling the world that it would no longer be its dumping ground. Nine years later it appears equally willing to recognise that refusing rubbish and importing valuable recycled resources are not the same thing.
There's no shame in changing policy when the evidence changes. If anything, China's willingness to learn, adapt and amend its approach deserves some credit. The more uncomfortable question may be whether Britain and Europe are prepared to learn from China's experiment too.
Perhaps we should spend slightly less time asking how much plastic we collect for recycling and rather more time asking a much harder question of after we've collected it, have we actually made something anybody wants to buy? More like this (China) - link - more like this (recycled plastic) - link - more like this (rubbish) - link






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