The report highlights the dangers of "climate overshoot"– a temporary breach of the 1.5°C warming limit set in the 2015 Paris Agreement. While world leaders have committed to keeping the global temperature increase below 1.5°C, emissions continue to rise, making this goal increasingly difficult to achieve.
The study emphasises that even a brief overshoot could lead to long-term impacts, including rising sea levels and other lasting effects that may persist for thousands of years.
At the 2015 Paris Agreement, several strategies were agreed upon in order to meet climate goals, such as halving greenhouse gas emissions by 2030.
Yet, these pledges have not been matched by action, and the idea of overshoot has even been embraced by some world leaders as a fallback plan.
False promises
At the 2023 climate negotiations in Dubai, COP 28 President Sultan Al Jaber promised to uphold the 1.5°C goal, stating the United Arab Emirates was guided by a "deep sense of urgency".
However, as CEO of the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC), Al Jaber was simultaneously overseeing plans for a major expansion in fossil fuel production.
This is one of the many contradictions between public promises and private actions. Many policies claiming to align with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C target are underpinned by the flawed belief that climate overshoot can be reversed without radically reducing emissions or the removal of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.
“Our research highlights that hoping to overshoot and then return to safer levels is delusional,” said Joeri Rogelj, a professor of climate science at Imperial College London and one of the co-authors of the study.
The research, spanning three years, outlines how exceeding the 1.5°C global temperature target could lead to consequences lasting for centuries.
The paper shows overshooting could trigger the thawing of permafrost, releasing vast amounts of greenhouse gases that would further accelerate climate change. Furthermore, it indicates that for every 100 years the temperature exceeds 1.5 °C, there is an associated increase in sea-level rise by approximately 40 cm by the year 2300, which presents a significant danger to island nations.
“Climate overshoot would leave an irreversible legacy,” said Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, lead author of the study and science advisor to Climate Analytics and Honorary Professor at Humboldt University Berlin. “It may not be reversible, even if global temperature increase might actually be reversed." More of this article (France 24) - link - picture (New Scientist article) - link - more like this (COP) - link - more like this (Abu Dhabi) - link
At the 2023 climate negotiations in Dubai, COP 28 President Sultan Al Jaber promised to uphold the 1.5°C goal, stating the United Arab Emirates was guided by a "deep sense of urgency".
However, as CEO of the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC), Al Jaber was simultaneously overseeing plans for a major expansion in fossil fuel production.
This is one of the many contradictions between public promises and private actions. Many policies claiming to align with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C target are underpinned by the flawed belief that climate overshoot can be reversed without radically reducing emissions or the removal of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.
“Our research highlights that hoping to overshoot and then return to safer levels is delusional,” said Joeri Rogelj, a professor of climate science at Imperial College London and one of the co-authors of the study.
The research, spanning three years, outlines how exceeding the 1.5°C global temperature target could lead to consequences lasting for centuries.
The paper shows overshooting could trigger the thawing of permafrost, releasing vast amounts of greenhouse gases that would further accelerate climate change. Furthermore, it indicates that for every 100 years the temperature exceeds 1.5 °C, there is an associated increase in sea-level rise by approximately 40 cm by the year 2300, which presents a significant danger to island nations.
“Climate overshoot would leave an irreversible legacy,” said Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, lead author of the study and science advisor to Climate Analytics and Honorary Professor at Humboldt University Berlin. “It may not be reversible, even if global temperature increase might actually be reversed." More of this article (France 24) - link - picture (New Scientist article) - link - more like this (COP) - link - more like this (Abu Dhabi) - link
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