(GUF) FROM EFW TO RDF VIA CBAM

The export of Refuse Derived Fuel (RDF) from Britain is set to surge in 2025, driven by a combination of rising landfill taxes, increasing EfW gate fees, and fluctuating domestic capacity. Here’s why RDF exports are about to boom:

1. The Landfill Tax Sledgehammer

With landfill tax jumping over 20% to £126.15 per tonne in April 2025, burying waste in the UK is becoming prohibitively expensive. Businesses looking for cheaper disposal routes will turn to RDF exports as a cost-effective alternative.

2. Domestic EfW Constraints

While some new EfW plants are coming online, rising carbon taxes and gate fees (expected to top £100 per tonne) mean that sending waste abroad may be more economical. The UK’s Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) could push operators to seek cheaper, less regulated markets for their waste.

3. Europe’s Appetite for RDF

Countries like the Netherlands, Germany, and Sweden have well-established EfW infrastructure and rely on RDF imports to feed their plants. Some European EfW facilities can offer lower gate fees compared to rising UK prices. Scandinavian countries, Poland, and even parts of Asia are also becoming increasingly interested in RDF imports.

4. Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) & Future Restrictions

There is growing discussion about a Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) to level the playing field between domestic treatment and exports. If such a mechanism is introduced, the financial benefits of RDF exports could shrink—but until then, exporters will take full advantage of cost differentials. What is CBAM - link

5. Risks of "Waste Tourism" & Regulatory Scrutiny

The UK government is aware that without proper controls, waste tourism could undermine carbon reduction goals. Expect tighter regulations and more scrutiny on RDF exports to ensure waste is treated properly and not dumped illegally.

What’s the Bottom Line?

1. 2025 will see a record-breaking surge in RDF exports as businesses look for the cheapest waste disposal options.
2. European EfW plants will be the main beneficiaries, though opportunities in Asia and other regions may grow.

3. The UK government could introduce regulatory barriers or financial penalties to curb excessive exports.

4. In the long run, balancing domestic EfW capacity, carbon costs, and international trade regulations will be key to managing RDF flows sustainably.

For now, RDF exporters are in for a bumper year—but how long this trend lasts will depend on future policies and market forces. More like this (ETS) - link - more like this (waste) - link