Tesla vehicles at a Supercharger station in Concord, California. - Photographer: David Paul Morris/Bloomberg
Electric vehicle sales are poised to more than triple by 2025, and yet governments and manufacturers need to lean even harder into eliminating emissions from road transportation by the middle of this century, according to BloombergNEF.
The research firm lays out the stakes and calls for action in its seventh annual Long-Term Electric Vehicle Outlook, released Wednesday. BNEF’s analysts deem EVs “a remarkable success story,” predicting plug-in passenger vehicle sales will soar to 20.6 million in 2025, much higher than its 14 million forecast just a year ago, mainly due to faster uptake in China.
Yet for all the progress, replacing the 1.2 billion passenger vehicles on the road that run on internal combustion engines takes time. Just over two-thirds of the global fleet will be zero-emission by 2050, if no new policies or regulations are enacted. Heavier commercial vehicles are on track to trail far behind, with only 29% of the fleet decarbonizing on that timeline.
“Despite the rapid rise in EV adoption, road transport is still not on track for carbon neutrality by 2050,” analysts led by Colin McKerracher, BNEF’s head of advanced transport, write in the report. “Aggressive action from policymakers will be required, especially on heavier vehicles where both batteries and hydrogen fuel cells are vying for a place in the market. The window to stay on track for net zero is closing quickly.” Bloomberg UK - link - Craig Trudell - link - River Davis - link - more like this (electric cars) - link - more like this (China) - link
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