IEA - NOT FIT FOR PURPOSE

The International Energy Agency published an interesting, but bizarre, roadmap for decarbonizing the global energy sector by 2050. 

The bizarre part comes from some of their assumptions, projections and recommendations for achieving net-zero emissions (NZE), some of which seem to contradict a few of their recent recommendations.

A lot has been written on the study, including many skeptical responses (see Robert Bryce’s discussion in Real Clear Energy). 

The skeptical part comes from IEA’s projection that total global energy use will drop over the next 30 years, when all indications are that it will increase as almost 3 billion more people are born needing an additional 10 trillion kWh/year alone, and as the billion or so energy poor of today will (and should) increase their energy consumption and climb into the middle class, requiring another trillion kWh/year (see figure below).

IEA’s projected energy mix in 2050 to achieve NZE is 20% fossil fuel, 66% renewables split between wind, solar, hydroelectricity, bioenergy and geothermal, and about 15% nuclear - link - James Conca - link - more like this - link