The EU-Mercosur trade agreement reveals Europe's counterproductive attitude towards other powers and public "scepticism" over its credibility, a leading agriculture and geopolitics scholar told Euractiv.
The finalisation of the trade agreement with the South American bloc on 6 December in Montevideo has ignited strong opposition within the EU farming and food community. This division is evident not only among member states – France and Poland have outright rejected the deal – but also within countries themselves, with factions in Belgium, Italy, and even the usually trade-focused Netherlands expressing concerns.As made clear by the EU's top diplomat Kaja Kallas, finalising the trade deal 25 years after negotiations began is as much about geopolitics as it is about the economy, in a region where China is gaining influence. However, the EU may have missed the boat, Sebastien Abis, the author and researcher on food geopolitics, told Euractiv.
“We are missing the big picture, which for agriculture and food trade concerns Brazil and China. Compared to that, the [Mercosur] agreement with Europe is small,” Abis said. In the “weaponisation of trade,” he added, agriculture and food are “strategic assets”.
“So we are not the only partners for South American countries. And the EU should consider the world as it is now, and not as what as it was 25 years ago”.
A world, according to the French researcher, where the global powers move as hippos: fast, aggressive, and polygamous.
Dancing with the hippos
Hippos, like Brazil, China, and likely Trump's USA, "maintain a network of partnerships and can sever ties abruptly or forge new ones," Abis explained.
In this environment, he believes Europeans often display naivety and discomfort with such fluid relationships, putting them at risk of being “eaten” in the competitive landscape. This is despite the EU's agri-food trade surplus making it a supposed powerhouse – something neither China nor the USA can claim.
This should give Europe a strategic advantage in agri-food exports – one which has been bolstered by the diversity and volume of agricultural products resulting from the EU’s enlargement process. “If we could approach Ukraine with the same mindset,” he added, “we’d recognize its significant potential.”
But the EU's lack of unity in external relations means it is "losing markets" in the face of "the hippopotamus strategy of the competitors," Abis said.
This is exacerbated by waning credibility on the domestic front, with Abis noting that the Mercosur treaty itself symbolizes a growing distrust among citizens towards EU elites. “Some stakeholders are presenting exaggerated claims about the treaty’s impact, reflecting a broader lack of confidence at home,” he said.
“This scepticism is understandable, given the EU’s shifting strategies. If we continually change our approach, we risk eroding our credibility both domestically and internationally.”
The bloc also seems to ignore the need to fill gaps on three “important vulnerabilities,” said Abis: fertilisers, seafood – of which the EU is a net importer – and biomass. More of this article (Euractiv) - link - more like this (EU farming) - link - more like this (China) - link
Hippos, like Brazil, China, and likely Trump's USA, "maintain a network of partnerships and can sever ties abruptly or forge new ones," Abis explained.
In this environment, he believes Europeans often display naivety and discomfort with such fluid relationships, putting them at risk of being “eaten” in the competitive landscape. This is despite the EU's agri-food trade surplus making it a supposed powerhouse – something neither China nor the USA can claim.
This should give Europe a strategic advantage in agri-food exports – one which has been bolstered by the diversity and volume of agricultural products resulting from the EU’s enlargement process. “If we could approach Ukraine with the same mindset,” he added, “we’d recognize its significant potential.”
But the EU's lack of unity in external relations means it is "losing markets" in the face of "the hippopotamus strategy of the competitors," Abis said.
This is exacerbated by waning credibility on the domestic front, with Abis noting that the Mercosur treaty itself symbolizes a growing distrust among citizens towards EU elites. “Some stakeholders are presenting exaggerated claims about the treaty’s impact, reflecting a broader lack of confidence at home,” he said.
“This scepticism is understandable, given the EU’s shifting strategies. If we continually change our approach, we risk eroding our credibility both domestically and internationally.”
The bloc also seems to ignore the need to fill gaps on three “important vulnerabilities,” said Abis: fertilisers, seafood – of which the EU is a net importer – and biomass. More of this article (Euractiv) - link - more like this (EU farming) - link - more like this (China) - link
